UFC 96 Picks: Gabriel Gonzaga vs Shane Carwin

Shane Carwin is a damn bear of a man, but so is Gabriel Gonzaga. Carwin has the superior strength, size, and wrestling, but Gonzaga's vastly superior Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu should come out on top. Yeah, Gonzaga is giving up 20 lbs and 2 inches to Carwin's 265 lb 6'3" frame, but it's not like Gonzaga is a 120 lb chess nerd. The guy looks bigger and more powerful everytime we see him, and I expect come fight night he'll close that weight gap even more. Combine that with his world class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and I see him overwhelming Carwin on the ground.

Carwin just hasn't faced the sort of competition Gonzaga has yet. His only chance is to try and beat Gonzaga up on his feet, and bully him around with his wrestling while keeping things off the ground. And that's just not a combination of things I see him pulling off. I imagine the two will trade a bit on their feet and then clinch a few times. Eventually Carwin's wrestling background will take over and he'll take Gonzaga to the ground, where things will go horribly for him and he'll either find himself in a submission, or swept and getting beat up on his back.